How OddsVAR works

Think of us as VAR for the bookmakers — we review every price and flag the calls they got wrong.

1. We gather the data — fixtures, team form and scoring stats, and the latest odds from across the bookmakers.
2. We turn odds into the market's probability — stripping out the bookmaker margin ("de-vig") and averaging across bookmakers.
3. We estimate our own probability — from scoring/conceding rates, expected goals and head-to-head, tilted by Elo ratings and converted with a Poisson model (no home advantage, since the World Cup is at neutral venues).
4. We flag the gaps — when our probability beats the market by more than 5%, that's a value bet; the size of the gap is the edge.
5. We rate confidence — combining the size of the edge with how complete the underlying data was.

OddsVAR is informational only and does not take bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly — support at begambleaware.org.